← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +7% |
| OGC Nice win | 27% | 24% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Christophe Jallet · OGC Nice |
| 36' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 52' | 🟨 | Racine Coly · OGC Nice |
| 57' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jean-Victor Makengo · OGC Nice |
| 78' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 481.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1517.32 | 1582.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.44 | -11.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |