← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 3.99 | value: +10% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 24% | 18% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 1027.00 | 722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1732.40 | 1702.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.08 | -17.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.10 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.52 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.13 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |