← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.21 | fair |
| Amiens win | 21% | 20% | 4.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Emil Krafth · Amiens |
| 47' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 66' | ⚽ | Benjamin Corgnet · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 71' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 82' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Amiens |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Khaled Adenon · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 813.00 | 1391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1478.84 | 1533.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.48 | -4.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |