← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 61% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
| Caen win | 13% | 19% | 7.42 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 46' | 🟨 | Adama Mbengue · Caen |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 49' | 🟨 | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 65' | ⚽ | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 3 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 295.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1590.05 | 1456.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.08 | 33.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |