← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Nantes win | 22% | 22% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 33' | 🟨 | Rene Krhin · Nantes |
| 49' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Lille OSC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Nantes |
| 63' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · Lille OSC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 295.00 | 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1508.61 | 1526.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.87 | -12.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.11 | — |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |