← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.31 | fair |
| Reims win | 25% | 29% | 3.95 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 56' | 🟨 | Pablo Chavarria · Reims |
| 63' | 🟨 | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 72' | 🟨 | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Xavier Chavalerin · Reims |
| 77' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 472.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1524.79 | 1630.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.80 | -16.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |