← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 76% | 78% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.23 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 9% | 9% | 11.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days | 715.00 | 807.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1712.28 | 1478.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.81 | -47.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.32 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.87 | -1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |