← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 55% | 60% | 1.78 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| Nimes win | 19% | 18% | 5.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Bordeaux |
| 31' | ⚽ | Baptiste Guillaume · Nimes |
| 45' | ⚽ | Antonin Bobichon · Nimes |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sergi Palencia · Bordeaux |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Bordeaux |
| 57' | ⚽ | Samuel Kalu · Bordeaux |
| 77' | ⚽ | Umut Bozok · Nimes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jaroslav Plašil · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days | 11.00 | 1050.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1695.86 | 1641.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.29 | 15.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |