← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 46% | 48% | 2.14 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.15 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 23% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 50' | ⚽ | Damien Le Tallec · Montpellier |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ambroise Oyongo · Montpellier |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 502.00 | 806.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1568.50 | 1474.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.66 | 3.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |