← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 40% | 44% | 2.42 | value: +6% |
| Angers SCO win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Enzo Loiodice · Dijon |
| 13' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 20' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 29' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 32' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 38' | ⚽ | Baptiste Santamaria · Angers SCO |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanga · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2267.00 | 2633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1538.84 | 1499.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.44 | -16.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |