← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 64% | 61% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.39 | value: +7% |
| Caen win | 14% | 14% | 6.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Ferland Mendy · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Claudio Beauvue · Caen |
| 55' | 🟥 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Prince Oniangué · Caen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ferland Mendy · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟥 | Baissama Sankoh · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 106.00 | 1019.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1450.66 | 1738.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.41 | -13.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 1.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 70.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 21.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.31 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |