← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 42% | 41% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.31 | value: +9% |
| Amiens win | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · Lille OSC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Rafał Kurzawa · Amiens |
| 85' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1384.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1546.86 | 1495.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.10 | 23.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.23 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |