← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 38% | 45% | 2.59 | value: +16% |
| Nimes win | 34% | 28% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Baptiste Guillaume · Nimes |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Umut Bozok · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 55.00 | 1028.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| elo | 1481.08 | 1636.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.55 | 36.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |