← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 47% | 52% | 2.09 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Dijon win | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 38' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 54' | 🟨 | Allan Saint-Maximin · OGC Nice |
| 67' | ⚽ | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 83' | ⚽ | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jules Keita · Dijon |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jules Keita · Dijon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mickaël Le Bihan · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jules Keita · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 85.00 | 2246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1590.56 | 1536.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.74 | 39.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.80 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.08 | — |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |