← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 44% | 49% | 2.19 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.03 | fair |
| Caen win | 23% | 23% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 26' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · Caen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · Caen |
| 79' | 🟥 | Paul Baysse · Caen |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 450.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1518.05 | 1423.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.18 | -0.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |