← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 35% | 33% | 2.76 | fair |
| Amiens win | 34% | 36% | 2.88 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Marvin Martin · Reims |
| 22' | ⚽ | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 36' | 🟥 | Romain Metanire · Reims |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bongani Zungu · Amiens |
| 58' | ⚽ | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
| 67' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 73' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1363.00 | 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1522.02 | 1666.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.57 | 11.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |