← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 38% | 37% | 2.55 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 31% | 33% | 3.15 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Aaron Leya Iseka · Toulouse FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 67' | ⚽ | Matthieu Dossevi · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maxime Poundjé · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 49.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1547.88 | 1692.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.42 | -0.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.80 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |