← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 57% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.09 | value: +3% |
| Nimes win | 19% | 16% | 5.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 36' | 🟨 | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 49' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 62' | ⚽ | Sada Thioub · Nimes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
| 72' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 74' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Nimes |
| 86' | ⚽ | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1022.00 | 687.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.64 |
| elo | 1620.30 | 1719.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.88 | -5.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 1.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |