← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 37% | 37% | 2.65 | fair |
| Nantes win | 35% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 73' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 78' | 🟥 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2239.00 | 443.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1524.02 | 1530.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.81 | -4.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |