← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 35% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
| Caen win | 34% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Caen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Yacine Bammou · Caen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · OGC Nice |
| 81' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Imorou · Caen |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ignatius Ganago · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1420.77 | 1593.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.05 | -16.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 73.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.08 |
| state index | -1.14 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |