← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 39% | 50% | 2.47 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.17 | fair |
| Amiens win | 30% | 23% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Guessouma Fofana · Amiens |
| 52' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ruben Aguilar · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 71' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1356.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1533.45 | 1543.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.20 | -8.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |