← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 87% | 88% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 10.47 | fair |
| Caen win | 4% | 4% | 23.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tim Weah · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Tim Weah · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 42.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1874.92 | 1422.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.06 | -17.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.46 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | — |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.75 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |