← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 78% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.68 | value: +8% |
| Amiens win | 7% | 9% | 13.47 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 42' | 🟨 | Gaoussou Traore · Amiens |
| 75' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 83' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 985.00 | 1350.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1756.48 | 1538.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.33 | 28.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.96 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.33 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.62 | — |
| state index | 1.30 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |