← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 49% | 51% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 22% | 24% | 4.47 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟥 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 73' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · Bordeaux |
| 78' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 206.00 | 772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1641.25 | 1464.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.02 | -3.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 1.15 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |