← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| Reims win | 19% | 22% | 5.07 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 23' | 🟨 | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 71.00 | 467.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1604.27 | 1644.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.46 | 5.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 75.00 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.08 | — |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |