← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 56% | 51% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.68 | value: +13% |
| Dijon win | 17% | 19% | 5.60 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 34' | 🟨 | Senou Coulibaly · Dijon |
| 51' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ruben Aguilar · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ | Senou Coulibaly · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 467.00 | 2232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1556.46 | 1511.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.94 | -5.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |