← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 41% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
| Nimes win | 28% | 23% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sada Thioub · Nimes |
| 33' | ⚽ | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 42' | 🟨 | Vincent Manceau · Angers SCO |
| 51' | ⚽ | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 70' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Nimes |
| 76' | ⚽ | Clément Depres · Nimes |
| 79' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Nimes |
| 79' | 🟥 | Florian Miguel · Nimes |
| 85' | ⚽ | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Romain Thomas · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2598.00 | 1014.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | — |
| elo | 1507.42 | 1611.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.23 | 12.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |