← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.32 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 19% | 18% | 5.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Guingamp |
| 47' | 🟨 | Franck Tabanou · Guingamp |
| 59' | ⚽ | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Clément Grenier · Guingamp |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 117.00 | 687.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1543.83 | 1605.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.11 | 23.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| league points | 34.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.74 | 28.33 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |