← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 51% | 54% | 1.92 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.47 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 21% | 20% | 4.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 17' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jérémie Porsan-Clemente · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 199.00 | 383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1703.15 | 1632.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.80 | -24.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 57.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.10 | 25.10 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |