← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 68% | 52% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.15 | value: +32% |
| Metz win | 13% | 22% | 7.40 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Bordeaux |
| 17' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 44' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 52' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Metz |
| 67' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 77' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 82' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 18.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1495.58 | 1681.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.39 | 52.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| league points | 26.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.52 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |