← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 79% | 82% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +11% |
| Amiens win | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 18' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Mitroglou · Olympique de Marseille |
| 30' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 55' | 🟥 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 595.00 | 1265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1777.55 | 1589.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.40 | 32.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| league points | 74.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 27.25 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |