← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 66% | 65% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.27 | value: +8% |
| OGC Nice win | 15% | 15% | 6.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jérémy Morel · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 48' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 52' | 🟨 | Walter Benítez · OGC Nice |
| 65' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 900.00 | 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1832.19 | 1682.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.70 | 6.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.70 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 76.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 75.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | 1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 25.79 |
| state index | 1.39 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |