← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 42% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 32% | 31% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (og) | Pierrick Capelle · Dijon |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gilles Sunu · Angers SCO |
| 53' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 75' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2148.00 | 2514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1587.83 | 1595.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.06 | -20.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| league points | 45.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 27.99 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |