← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 49% | 67% | 1.93 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.45 | fair |
| Caen win | 23% | 15% | 4.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Tim Weah · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Julien Féret · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jessy Deminguet · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 3244.00 | 717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1494.41 | 1961.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.48 | -27.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 37.00 | 92.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.87 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |