← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 61% | 72% | 1.60 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.62 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 18% | 10% | 5.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 25 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 680.00 | 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1520.13 | 1848.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.95 | 30.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 1.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| league points | 35.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 28.41 | 25.00 |
| state index | -0.76 | 1.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |