← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 62% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Caen win | 15% | 14% | 6.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 35' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Allan Saint-Maximin · OGC Nice |
| 54' | 🟥 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 76' | ⚽ | Christian Kouakou · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 741.00 | 3237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1675.40 | 1501.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.75 | -29.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 76.70 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 51.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.85 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |