← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 65% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.68 | fair |
| Dijon win | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 11' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 18' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · Lille OSC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 162.00 | 2141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1569.10 | 1596.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.73 | 7.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.02 | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |