← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 54% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 19% | 22% | 5.11 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Maxime Poundjé · Bordeaux |
| 38' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Bordeaux |
| 45' | 🟨 | Somalia · Toulouse FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Bordeaux |
| 66' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Lukas Lerager · Bordeaux |
| 78' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days |
| 114.00 |
| 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1595.23 | 1471.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.80 | -13.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 49.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |