← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 40% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.25 | value: +15% |
| Lille OSC win | 30% | 24% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 9' | ⚽ | Corentin Jean · Toulouse FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 85' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 104.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1563.52 | 1557.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.85 | -13.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.99 | 23.21 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |