← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.42 | value: +8% |
| Bordeaux win | 24% | 22% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 30' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jules Koundé · Bordeaux |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Bordeaux |
| 85' | 🟨 | Igor Lewczuk · Bordeaux |
| 88' | 🟨 | Paul-Georges Ntep · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benoît Costil · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 156.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1681.91 | 1654.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.72 | 22.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| league points | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.53 | 25.87 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |