← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 53% | 59% | 1.84 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.86 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 13' | ⚽ | Valère Germain · Olympique de Marseille |
| 39' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 582.00 | 735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1791.32 | 1680.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.69 | 13.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 76.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 70.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |