← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 37% | 33% | 2.65 | fair |
| Dijon win | 37% | 36% | 2.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.69 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jordan Ikoko · Guingamp |
| 57' | ⚽ | Felix Eboa Eboa · Guingamp |
| 65' | ⚽ | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fouad Chafik · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2135.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1583.07 | 1616.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.47 | 56.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| league points | 42.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 27.49 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |