← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 75% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.39 | fair |
| Amiens win | 10% | 10% | 10.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bongani Zungu · Amiens |
| 64' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 83' | 🟨 | Guessouma Fofana · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 23 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1250.00 | 702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1572.68 | 1995.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.45 | 4.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.86 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| league points | 41.00 | 91.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 27.42 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |