← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 88% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 7% | 11.51 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 4% | 4% | 26.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Thomas Meunier · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 697.00 | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 2004.47 | 1607.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.25 | 37.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.57 |
| league points | 90.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 27.52 |
| state index | 1.82 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |