← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 54% | 47% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 20% | 26% | 4.80 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 27' | 🟨 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
| 62' | 🟨 | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yohann Pelé · Olympique de Marseille |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 2494.00 | 575.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1600.56 | 1814.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.27 | 24.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 37.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.40 | 28.10 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |