← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 41% | 39% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Idriss Saadi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marlon · OGC Nice |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 76' | 🟨 | Arnaud Souquet · OGC Nice |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 666.00 | 727.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1521.95 | 1683.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.82 | 13.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 76.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.44 | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |