← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 76% | 79% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.40 | fair |
| Nantes win | 9% | 6% | 10.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jérémy Morel · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 68' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 77' | 🟨 | Yassine El Ghanassy · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days |
| 879.00 |
| 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1760.53 | 1535.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.86 | -28.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 69.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.82 | — |
| state index | 1.55 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |