← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 50% | 57% | 1.94 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.68 | fair |
| Metz win | 23% | 19% | 4.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Metz |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 77' | ⚽ | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 148.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1545.61 | 1525.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.49 | 9.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| league points | 29.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.10 | 29.25 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |