← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 64% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.40 | fair |
| Dijon win | 14% | 16% | 7.00 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Bordeaux |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Valentin Rosier · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 100.00 | 2127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1644.19 | 1593.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.36 | -3.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 27.01 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |