← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 39% | 2.78 | value: +7% |
| Toulouse FC win | 33% | 28% | 2.94 | fair |
| Caen win | 32% | 33% | 2.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3220.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1518.90 | 1569.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.25 | -8.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |